With less than a year until Hamiltonians go to the polls, 2022 mayoral runner-up Keanin Loomis currently leads incumbent Mayor Andrea Horwath, according to polling conducted last week by Liaison Strategies for The National Ethnic Press and Media Council of Canada.
Loomis received 38 per cent support among all voters surveyed, followed by Horwath at 33 per cent. Former Member of Parliament for Hamilton East-Stoney Creek, Chad Collins, placed third with nine per cent. 17 per cent were undecided.
Among decided voters, Loomis holds a 46 per cent to 40 per cent lead over Mayor Horwath.
The poll revealed Mayor Horwath is the only Ontario large-city mayor surveyed with a negative net approval rating. Her overall approval sits at 41 per cent, with disapproval at 47 per cent, resulting in a net approval of -6 per cent.
This compares to a +5 rating for Mississauga Mayor Carolyn Parrish, a +9 for Ottawa Mayor Mark Sutcliffe, and a +10 for Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow. Markham Mayor Frank Scarpitti was the top-rated mayor with a +52 net approval.
Women Back Horwath, Men Back Loomis
The polling data indicates a significant demographic split in support for Horwath and Loomis, particularly along gender and age lines.
Horwath’s support is strongest among women and younger voters. Her approval rating is highest among the 18 to 34 age demographic, at 59 per cent. Among decided women voters, Horwath holds 47 per cent support, compared to 41 per cent for Loomis.
Loomis’s support is strongest among men and older voters. Among decided men voters, Loomis holds 53 per cent support, compared to 40 per cent for Mayor Horwath. Loomis’s highest support is among the 50 to 64 age demographic, with 57 per cent stating they would vote for him, compared to only 28 per cent for Horwath.
Younger Hamiltonians Support Horwath Locally, Conservatives Federally
The poll highlights a key political contradiction among the city’s younger demographics, who show split preferences between federal and local politics.
Respondents in the 18 to 34 and 35 to 49 age demographics are simultaneously supporters of the federal Conservative Party and Horwath, the former Ontario NDP leader, locally.
Among decided voters, Horwath has 48 per cent support in the 18 to 34 age demographic and 49 per cent in the 35 to 49 age demographic. These same groups say they support the federal Conservative Party, with 46 per cent in the 18 to 34 age demographic and 40 per cent in the 35 to 49 age demographic planning to vote for the Pierre Poilievre-led party if a federal election were held today.
Loomis’ Campaign Team Preparing, Spadafora Considering, and Francis Backs Collins
Horwath has officially declared she will run for re-election.
Loomis, who has not yet formally declared his candidacy, said his job as the President and CEO of the Canadian Institute of Steel Construction requires his focus given ongoing United States tariffs, but he said he remains “supremely frustrated with what’s going on in the city.” His 2022 campaign team is already preparing for a 2026 run.
Collins has indicated he will consider running and is expected to be backed by the established East Hamilton Liberal organizers that supported Vito Sgro in the 2018 mayoral race.
Last week, Ward 5 Councillor Matt Francis was the first member of Council to express formal support for a Collins mayoral bid. Councillor Francis said, “I’ll be looking to support someone for mayor. Someone like Chad Collins who I think would do an excellent job as mayor.”
Ward 14 Councillor Mike Spadafora has not ruled out running for Mayor if Collins chooses not to run. Last week, Spadafora said he is “undecided whether I’m running at all, in Ward 14, or anywhere else” and confirmed that running for Mayor is “definitely not” out of the question.
Hamiltonians More Concerned About Crime Than Other Ontario City Dwellers, Taxes as Well, but Not Affordable Housing
In a divergence from most other major cities surveyed, crime is the most pressing concern for Hamilton voters. Crime was cited as the most important issue by 34 per cent of respondents, significantly outranking taxes at 15 per cent, homelessness at 12 per cent, and affordable housing at 11 per cent.
Hamiltonians ranked affordable housing as the lowest top-issue priority of any city surveyed, with 11 per cent. The average for all cities was 22.7 per cent. When combined with homelessness, only 23 per cent of Hamiltonians ranked one of the two as their top issue, the lowest combined ranking in the survey.
Taxes ranked as a higher concern in Hamilton (15 per cent) than in most other cities surveyed, with only Mississauga ranking it higher at 16 per cent.
Hamilton Federal NDP Support Back to 21 Per Cent, Liberals and Conservatives Statistically Tied for Lead
The poll reveals the federal Liberals and Conservatives are statistically tied for support in Hamilton.
The Liberals lead slightly with 38 per cent support, followed closely by the Conservatives at 37 per cent. The NDP has returned to a more traditional 21 per cent in our area.
The NDP lost its only Hamilton seat in the April federal election. Incumbent Matthew Green placed third in Hamilton Centre. Liberal candidate Aslam Rana won with 37.6 per cent support, Conservative candidate Hayden Lawrence had 29.9 per cent of the vote, and Green had 29.1 per cent.
Conservative Ned Kuruc defeated Liberal incumbent Collins to win Hamilton East-Stoney Creek.
Poll Details
The Liaison poll was conducted through interactive voice recording on October 22 and 23. The sample size for Hamilton is 800 voters, with a margin of error of ±3.46 per cent 19 out of 20 times.
The next municipal election is scheduled for October 26, 2026.
This polling was completed before it was learned that S&P Global Ratings had downgraded the City of Hamilton’s credit rating.
Production Details
v. 1.0.0
Published: October 27, 2025
Last updated: October 27, 2025
Author: Joey Coleman
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