Yes, you’ve read the headline correctly.
The Conservative “safe seat” of Flamborough-Glanbrook-Brant North could flip to the Liberals if indicators showing a collapse of the NDP vote are accurate.
Opinion polls are consistently reporting NDP support in the single digits.
Chatting with political operatives in both the Conservative and Liberal camps in recent days, they’ve shared that their internal data shows a severe collapse of the NDP vote outside a handful of ridings the NDP presently holds.
Polls are revealing this concentration of support. It follows that NDP support outside these pockets will be lower than the 6-9 percent reported in national polling.
A drop in NDP support to three percent in Flamborough-Glanbrook-Brant North could flip the riding to the Liberals. (Three percent is the estimate I’m hearing from operatives.)
The redistributed 2021 federal election results give the Conservatives a 6,000-vote margin over the Liberals. The NDP had 14.62 percent of the 2021 vote.
If the NDP vote has collapsed, and those voters shift to the Liberals, then Flam-Glan-Brant is a toss-up riding.
I was skeptical over the weekend, especially because I—and every other political type— had declared this to be a safe seat.
I’m willing to move the riding into the “leaning CPC” category. I’m not ready to call it a toss-up.
Hamilton Mountain
I’m sure a few of you are wondering about Hamilton Mountain. It is considered very competitive.
Political operatives I’ve spoken to believe the residency issue is resonating: NDP challenger Monique Taylor resides in the riding, while Liberal incumbent Lisa Hepfner resides in Oakville.
The two candidates will square off for a debate on Cable 14 tonight beginning at 7:00 p.m. – you can watch live on Cable14now.com
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Published: April 22, 2025
Last updated: April 22, 2025
Author: Joey Coleman
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