Left-leaning voters in Hamilton Centre elected a traditional-style NDP candidate over the ‘progressive-left’ incumbent.
Robin Lennox won a decisive victory bringing Hamilton Centre back into the provincial NDP caucus, defeating former NDP MPP Sarah Jama, who was removed from the caucus in October 2023 and ran for re-election as an independent.
Lennox secured 38 percent of the vote while Jama came in fourth place with 15 percent.
Matthew Green, Cameron Kroetsch, and Nrinder Nann backed Jama. The Hamilton and District Labour Council and other social-left organizations also endorsed Jama.
On the issues that define NDP, Jama and Lennox’s positions were nearly the same. They only differed in style and the wing of the NDP they align with.
A Loss for the Hamilton Centre ‘Progressive-Left’
The loss is a setback for the ‘progressive-left’ political machine that Matthew Green built in the past decade and has controlled every elected seat in the lower city between Highway 403 and Ottawa Street since 2023.
Following Green’s 2014 Ward 3 city council seat win, he converted his political team into a campaign machine that grew and integrated into the NDP.
In 2017, they backed Jagmeet Singh in the federal NDP leadership race.
In 2018, Green stepped down from municipal politics to run federally in Hamilton. Nrinder Nann won the Ward 3 council seat that year, but the progressive-left public school trustee candidate lost in Ward 3 by 29 votes.
In 2019, Green easily won Hamilton Centre in the federal election.
2022 was the breakout year for this ‘progressive-left’ machine. Cameron Kroetsch won the Ward 2 council seat, Sabreina Dehab won the Ward 2 public school trustee seat, and Maria Felix Miller finally picked up the Ward 3 public school trustee seat.
Following Andrea Horwath’s election as mayor, they mobilized to secure the Hamilton Centre NDP nomination for Sarah Jama. Jama easily won the 2023 by-election.
When Jama was ousted from the NDP caucus in October 2023, they quickly formed a new riding association and raised $34,325.99 between November 29 and December 31, 2023.
Jama’s 2025 campaign was fully funded.
The Size of the Lower City Progressive-Left is Now Known
Jama’s supporters were vocal and motivated, proudly displaying Jama signs on their lawns and in windows.
We now know the size of this political bloc: 4,977 people cast their ballots for Sarah Jama.
This 5,000 ‘progressive-left’ bloc will continue to be loud and engaged. Hamilton has always had ‘far-left’ political movements, and in the past few years, they’ve gained elected office.
Political organizers will examine the poll-by-poll results to determine where councillors Kroetsch and Nann are most vulnerable in the 2026 municipal election.
There are growing expressions of frustration towards Kroetsch and Nann on the issues of encampments, public drug use, supervised consumption sites, and a range of municipal issues.
With a federal election seemingly imminent, the Conservatives will examine shifts in voting patterns to determine whether Matthew Green has new vulnerabilities.
For example, have voters in the North End shifted away from the NDP over issues such as encampments?
Hamilton Mountain: The New ‘Progressive-Left’ Candidate Loses in a NDP Seat
The ‘progressive-left’ has sought to win seats on Hamilton Mountain.
Kojo Damptey, a key organizer in the movement, came close to winning the Ward 14 council seat in 2022, placing second by an 73-vote margin.
He converted this record, back by the strength of the ‘progressive-left’ NDP membership numbers, into becoming the Hamilton Mountain NDP candidate.
(NDP incumbent Monique Taylor is leaving provincial politics to run in the pending federal election.)
Damptey said he was running to “keep Hamilton Mountain orange,” but it is now Conservative blue instead.
The NDP dropped to third place, with 33 percent less total votes than in 2022, and lost the seat.
His and the Jama campaign overlapped. Many of the same people volunteered to drop literature, install lawn signs, and run the phone banks.
It was a losing night for the ‘progressive-left.’
Production Details
v. 1.1.0
Published: February 28, 2025
Last updated: February 28, 2025
Author: Joey Coleman
Update Record
v. 1.0.0 original version
v. 1.1.0 corrected Ward 14 vote margin. Original version incorrectly stated 89 votes.
I’d push back on the idea that Jama’s loss was a surprise. The limited polling available before the election showed her in fourth place—exactly where she ended up.
Voters are clearly losing patience with “Defund the Police” activists and politicians who rely more on slogans than substance.
Looking ahead to 2026, Ward 2, Ward 3, and the Mayor all seem highly vulnerable. Public frustration with encampments, rising drug use, and the Microshelter project is only growing.
Personally, I’ll be working to elect their replacements.
The unexpected element, which causes surprise, is Hamilton Centre voter turnout increased.
This challenges previous presumptions that a short campaign period, narrow windows for canvassing during winter, combined with a weekend winter storm in the middle of the election, would result in lower turnout.
In a low turnout race, get-out-the-vote is a more determinate factor.
The Conservatives and Liberals do not have a get-out-the-vote in Hamilton Centre. Therefore, with the presumption turnout would be lower, the ‘pundits’ [myself included] expected to see Jama above the two other parties.
FWIW, I wish I’d been clearer in my post last night that my surprise was the Jama campaign being behind the other two parties. I did not have any expectations on the margin between Jama and Lennox.
Thanks for taking the time to provide your perspective there, Joey.
I did not consider the voter turn out aspect, so I appreciate your insight there.
Great article. Appreciate your commentary here.
I believe, based on anecdotal evidence, Ward 1 may be vulnerable as well.
Minor edit I lost by 79 votes in 2022.
Thank you for catching this, and thank you for running for public office. I know you will continue to be involved.
Joey I understand the ‘horse race’ focus of the piece. It’s how media positions the narrative. But the winners here are the majority of constituents in these ridings and business owners and employers – of which there are too few and in relation to which the progressives in this city have nothing but contempt.
Thank you for commenting.
‘Horse race’ coverage usually refers to stories sourced based on polls in the lead up to election day.
This is a political mechanics piece: it focuses on political organizing, resourcing, and outcomes.
I focused on a political group that is having a large impact and become a dominant group in the lower city.
If I were writing 20 years ago, I be discussing how Sheila Copps’ political machine was no longer dominant outside of Hamilton East – Stoney Creek and the NDP gains that resulted.
The forward looking analysis states what political organizers will be looking at with the poll-by-poll data.
In my own opinion, I think democracy is the winner locally – Hamiltonians had clear choices on the ballot, good candidates put forth on all sides, and I am very optimistic for the younger candidates who’ve stepped up this election.
Many presumptions were proven incorrect last night. It was pursued we have lower voter turnout compared to 2022, that did not happen.
Now we await the release of poll-by-poll data.