The last day of campaigning is the most important day for party leaders.
They make short stops in the closest races, hoping to boost local candidates to victory.
Liberal leader Bonnie Crombie ended her campaign on Wednesday evening with one final rally at Dawn Danko’s Hamilton Mountain campaign office.
NDP leader Marit Stiles made campaign stops with Kojo Damptey in Hamilton Mountain and Robin Lennox in Hamilton Centre.
Conservative leader Doug Ford listed a campaign stop in Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas on his itinerary.
[The PC Hamilton Centre candidate is engulfed in a scandal. Ford’s social media did not include the Hamilton stop today.]
It is noteworthy that all three visited today: the campaigns believe three of Hamilton’s five ridings will be close.
Campaigns Feel Three Hamilton Ridings Are Close
Hamilton Centre is obviously an interesting race.
Sarah Jama is running as an Independent candidate. The NDP candidate, Robin Lennox, is a well-regarded physician – a strong candidate for the party’s effort to return the seat to caucus.
I live in the riding. A few days ago, I wrote that I do not foresee ‘vote-splitting’ being an issue: this is a Jama versus Lennox race.
Some polls and sites suggest the Liberals could win the riding. This is unlikely; they do not have a strong riding-level campaign.
The Liberals do not have the data or resources to run a get-out-the-vote operation. They did not send literature to voters via Canada Post; the party is focused on winning Hamilton Mountain.
Hamilton Mountain is an open seat. The NDP incumbent is not seeking re-election. (Monique Taylor intends to run in the pending federal election.)
All three parties are pouring resources into the race.
NDP candidate Kojo Damptey needs to hold the NDP vote: Hamilton Mountain has been an NDP stronghold. They have the data, they have the funding, and they have the volunteers.
Liberal candidate Dawn Danko brings her own campaign organization and identified voters list to the race. She raised the money needed to mount a strong campaign, and the central party is giving her resources.
On resources, data, and money, it appears to be a NDP versus Liberal race.
Conservative candidate Monica Ciriello can win in a ‘vote-split’ situation or just by increasing the PC share of the vote.
The Conservatives were in a respectable second place in 2022. The Liberals were a distance in third place.
The NDP’s vote percentage decreased in 2022 as the Liberal vote rebounded from 2018.
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas NDP incumbent Sandy Shaw is seeking a third term. Although the riding demographically favours the Conservatives, it has been held by the federal Liberals and provincial NDP on the strength of having well-respected local candidates.
In 2022, the Conservatives placed a close enough second that an overall drop in voter turnout could swing the riding.
Doug Ford’s itinerary Hamilton stop was in HWAD. Liberal candidate Julia Brown ran a strong canvassing campaign, reaching thousands of doors. However, polling indicates the Liberals are still in re-building mode provincially in HWAD.
Tomorrow, there will be a get-out-the-vote race between the NDP and PCs.
Voter Turnout – Will It Be a Record Low
The short winter campaign meant candidates were not able to canvass every household.
Media coverage of the election has been shallow due to limited resources and competing news demands.
Voter cards only arrived in mailboxes late last week.
Campaigns with great voter data and the volunteers to get out the vote will be the winners in any close races.
Hamilton’s advance voter turnout was higher than the provincial average of 6.14 percent. This is down from 9.92 percent during the 2022 general election. However, there were only three days for advance voting this time, compared to ten days in 2022.
Vote on Thursday, Then Watch the Results
Polls are open from 9:00 a.m. to 9:00 p.m.
Find out your polling place on the Elections Ontario website.
Results will be posted on the Elections Ontario website as ballots are counted.
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Published: February 26, 2025
Last updated: February 26, 2025
Author: Joey Coleman
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