Happy Election Day Hamilton!
Here’s what I’m watching for today.
Hamilton’s City Clerk has, thus far, pulled off a perfect by-election with no issues or hiccups. Early polling at seven different locations during the past week was successful, with record participation, and contenders I’ve spoken to have all praised the staff running this election.
The City Clerk needs this by-election day to run smoothly to erase the stain left behind from the 2022 municipal election fiascos.
Votes Cast Thus Far, and Candidate Get Out the Vote Operations
Ward 8 voter turnout in the 2022 regular election was around 30 per cent.
With record advance turnout, 2,320 ballots cast, representing approximately 8.4 per cent of eligible voters, I’m going to write this column with the presumption that overall voter turnout will be approximately 25 per cent with 4,800 additional ballots being cast later today.
The number is likely to be higher, if I were to place a bet, I would wager 27.5 per cent.
With 26 candidates running, it is likely the winning candidate will receive 20 per cent of the vote. Let’s presume 7,200 votes are cast. At 20 per cent, the winner would need around 1,400 votes.
1,400 votes doesn’t seem like a lot, but no contender has clearly captured enough attention to fully secure a voting bloc. There are multiple candidates appealing to each type of voter in the riding.
No candidate has a clear pathway to victory.
Voter Awareness Should Be Higher Than Usual – There are Lawn Signs Everywhere
Ward 8 residents are welcoming candidates to place lawn signs, with many properties featuring multiple candidate signs.
Signs don’t vote! In this election, they do not even indicate voter intentions, nor do they serve as a good barometer of campaign organizational strength.
What is great about the number of lawn signs is it is impossible to miss there is an election underway.
The St. Elizabeth Village Home Field Advantage Factor
548 ballots were cast at the special community poll in St. Elizabeth Village on Saturday, representing an over 50 per cent participation rate for the private 634-unit seniors retirement community.
Barry Quinn is the only candidate who lives in the Village. Generally speaking, in by-elections, contenders have their strongest showing within their own neighbourhood.
Most of the 548 ballots cast in the Village likely went to Quinn. That represents a significant foundation for a potential victory if he can pick up a few hundred supporters in each of the other neighbourhoods.
With the Village having voted, Quinn can focus his election day efforts elsewhere in the ward.
No other candidate appears to have a similar home neighbourhood advantage.
Get Out the Vote and Campaign Volunteers
Terry Whitehead has called in all his political favours this election cycle. Hamilton’s developers and big money interests have donated to his cause. He has a fully-funded campaign, complete with a batmobile rental.
He was the only candidate with a scrutineer present at the City’s elections operation room at end of advance polling on Sunday.
He has the worst political record of any candidate in the race, and seemingly the most money. Will money win?
Lohifa Pogoson Acker has collected many endorsements. Will those endorsements translate into election day volunteers? Many of Keanin Loomis’ key campaign volunteers have been involved in Acker’s campaign. She’ll have a get-out-the-vote operation.
There is No List of Front-Runners
By-elections and open (no incumbent) council races have taught us in Hamilton that nobody in the media can create an accurate list of “front runners.”
I’ve only mentioned three contenders by name in this column, not because they are the leading candidates, but because I happen to have insightful commentary to share about them.
I could write something about each of the other hopefuls, but this column has reached its proper limit.
Cast your ballot!
Information for residents on the City of Hamilton website here
Follow me on Bluesky for updates on Monday, I’ll be at the City’s election headquarters to provide results beginning at 8:00 p.m.
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Published: September 22, 2025
Last updated: September 22, 2025
Author: Joey Coleman
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v. 1.0.0 original version