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2:00 a.m. Ending the Blog
Hamilton wakes up to a new political landscape: The Liberals won at least two of Hamilton’s five seats (likely a third), the Conservatives the other two.
The biggest and most unexpected shock of the night was Hamilton Centre NDP incumbent Matthew Green’s defeat. At this time, I’m not calling the race.
Liberal candidate Aslam Rana is at 35.8 percent with 185 of 227 polls reporting. The Conservative candidate is at 31.8 percent. The Conservatives have barely reached 15 percent in past elections.
The most immediate impact at City Hall is that the Council will have to decide whether to call a by-election to fill the Ward 8 vacancy or make an appointment.
1:20 a.m. Hamilton East Stoney Creek
With 211 of 237 polls reporting, Conservative challenger Ned Kuruc is leading Liberla incumbent Chad Collins by over six percent, 2500 votes.
There are few pockets of the riding that are traditionally strong Liberal polls – but unless none of them have reported, this looks to be a Conservative pick-up.
Kuruc will be influential in the party. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has visited the riding numerous times, rewarding Kuruc’s hard work with the boost of a leader’s rally.
1:05 a.m. Lisa Hepfner holds Hamilton Mountain
Liberal Lisa Hepfner is re-elected as the NDP vote completely collapsed this election.
The final margin of victory will be three to four percent over second-place Conservative candidate Ken Hewitt, a former mayor of Haldimand County.
Well-known former MPP Monique Taylor is a distant third-place at below 12 percent of the vote.
We do not know if the Liberals will reach a majority government.
Hamilton Mountain will be a battleground riding in the next election. The Conservatives will find a local candidate and have a local campaign organization next time — recently elected Member of Provincial Parliament Monique Taylor is working on that.
12:35 a.m. Hamilton Centre is Unprecedented
I conversed with some of Canada’s leading pollsters on Thursday evening at the Public Policy Forum dinner in Toronto.
(The Chatham House Rule governs discussions – I can talk about what was said, but not who said it.)
I stated that anything less than 45 percent would be bad for Matthew Green, because it would indicate he is vulnerable to a well-organized challenge from the Liberal Party.
One of the pollsters suggested Green would win around 40 percent of the vote. Nobody went lower.
Right now, with 75% of polls reporting, Green is at 29.1 percent.
There is no precedent for this – every poll in Hamilton Centre has been an NDP poll.
It is doubtful that anyone will call the riding until 90% report, but we can all see where this is going.
12:26 a.m. Hamilton Mountain is Too Close to Call
With 83% of polls reporting, the current margin of 800 votes between the Liberal incumbent Lisa Hepfner and Conservative Ken Hewitt is too close for me to call the race.
There are pockets of strong Conservative support south of the LINC – we do not know what polls are outstanding.
For all we know, the outstanding polls could be the stronger Liberal polls north of Mohawk Road.
12:14 a.m. Hamilton Mountain and the Collapse of the NDP Vote
With around 80% of polls reporting, NDP candidate Monique Taylor is barely into the double-digits at 11.8 percent.
Infighting amongst the local NDP must shoulder the blame for the end of NDP competitiveness in Hamilton Mountain, both federally and provincially.
In 2021, the NDP’s Old Guard blocked its younger members from securing the nomination. Instead, a former NDP MP from Welland was parachuted into the riding, enabling Liberal Lisa Hepfner to barely win the seat.
Looking at Hamilton Centre, having an incumbent is no guarantee the NDP would hold the seat, and it is more likely than not that John-Paul Danko would be the Hamilton Mountain Liberal candidate in this scenario.
If the Liberals hold the seat, maybe the NDP can take solace in the fact that they didn’t “split the vote.”
11:56 p.m. Hamilton West – Ancaster – Dundas
Unsurprisingly, soon-to-be former Ward 8 Councillor John-Paul Danko easily wins the riding. Once the polls shifted against the Conservatives and in favour of the Liberals, Danko saw the opportunity to succeed well-regarded MP Filomena Tassi.
11:52 p.m. Hamilton East Stoney Creek
Conservative candidate Ned Kuruc has worked the hardest of any Hamilton area candidate the past two years, canvassing every weekend leading up to the election and nonstop since it was called. My colleague, national columnist Paul Wells, noted Kuruc’s efforts in a widely read article published in September 2023.
With nearly half of the ridings polls reporting, Kuruc is neck-to-neck with Liberal incumbent Chad Collins.
[We do not know what polls are reporting, this is riding with pockets of strong support for each party – we may need to wait until the end of counting to announce a winner]
11:48 p.m. More Hamilton Centre
I’m thinking as I write. This is a completely unexpected scenario.
I considered the possibility that Matthew Green’s support would drop to 40 percent, with the Liberal capping at 33 percent, and the Conservative at 25 percent.
With 37% of polls reporting, it’s a three-way race at this time.
All three candidates have worked hard during this race.
Aslam Rana came to my door, I confronted him with his Mississauga residency and he handled the challenge very professionally. I heard similar stories from others.
Hayden Lawrence ran a great social media campaign and canvassed like no Conservative before him has.
Matthew Green has one of the best campaign machines in Hamilton. They’ve canvassed the entire riding, multiple times.
Rana was parachuted in by the Liberal Party – they did not permit a local nomination contest. At the time, the race wasn’t considered close. Rana would learn how to campaign in Hamilton, prove himself, and be rewarded next election with the opportunity to run in Mississauga.
Lawrence stepped up for his party – similar dynamic. He’d learn how to run a campaign and then have the chance to run in a more competitive riding.
The challenges deserve credit for excellent campaigning – even with deducted marks for both skipping the Cable 14 debate.
[As I write this sentence, over 45% of polls are reporting – still a three way race.]
11:20 p.m. Matthew Green Severely Underperforming
With nearly 25 percent of Hamilton Centre’s polls reporting, NDP incumbment Matthew Green is in third place thus far.
The Conservative candidate is leading with 33.3% of ballots counted thus far, the Liberal is second with 33.2%, and Green only has 29.8%.
It is completely unexpected that the NDP is losing so many polls in Hamilton Centre—this is one of the strongest NDP ridings in Canada.
The federal Hamilton seat was created in 2004, and the NDP has won all seven elections.
During the 1990s, at the peak of federal Liberal support in Hamilton, Sheila Copps would lose many of the Hamilton East polls that are now in Hamilton Centre today.
I cannot recollect the Conservatives ever winning a regular poll in Hamilton Centre – unprecedented for sure.
[In the 1995 Ontario election, when Bob Rae’s unpopular government was thrown out of office, the NDP lost every one of its Hamilton seats, with the exception of Hamilton Centre. You have to go back to 1985 for the last time a provincial NDP incumbent lost in Hamilton Centre.]
11:00 p.m. The Hamilton Mountain Conservative Parachute is a Strong Second – the Mountain is Now a Conservative Riding
Former Haldimand Mayor Ken Hewitt, a resident of Turkey Point, was parachuted into Hamilton Mountain after the Conservatives found themselves without a local candidate when the federal election was called.
The Conservatives are poorly organized on Hamilton Mountain – both provincially and federally.
This doesn’t matter. They convincingly won the provincial election a few weeks ago, electing Monico Ciriello to the Legislative Assembly.
Ciriello will spend the next few years building a riding association ready for future elections. The provincial and federal Conservative party headquarters will provide resources to the riding.
And next time, the CPC will be able to get a local candidate.
11:00 p.m. The Collapse of the NDP in Canada: A Rout on Hamilton Mountain
The NDP vote has collapsed across Canada. On Hamilton Mountain, with over 25 percent of polls reporting, former Member of Provincial Parliament Monique Taylor is a distant third with 12.2% of the popular vote with 47/186 reporting.
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Published: April 28, 2025
Last updated: April 28, 2025
Author: Joey Coleman