Ontario Conservative Premier Doug Ford wanted to flip NDP seats to the Conservatives.
His first election campaign stop was in Windsor, where, in 2022, the Conservatives took two of the region’s three seats from the NDP. Ford started the final full day of the campaigning in Windsor on Wednesday.
Ford did not win Windsor West; instead, the Conservatives got a less-expected and bigger win by taking the [now-former] NDP stronghold of Hamilton Mountain.
The Ontario Conservatives have only won Hamilton Mountain once since the 1975 election.
In 1995, Ontario voters threw Bob Rae’s NDP government out of office. The Conservatives held the riding for precisely one term before the Liberals gained the seat and held it for 12 years.
Since 2011, Monique Taylor has held the seat for the NDP. Taylor did not seek re-election because she plans to run in the pending federal election.
NDP Vote Collapses on Hamilton Mountain as Voter Turnout Increases
Elections Ontario’s preliminary results state that voter turnout increased by four percentage points, with 4,344 more ballots cast in 2025 than in 2022’s general election.
The NDP’s total votes dropped by 34.2 percent compared to 2022, with Kojo Damptey securing 10,037 compared to Taylor’s 15,250.
We’ll have to await the poll-by-poll results to learn how many NDP voters shifted to the Liberals, and how many to the Conservatives.
The Conservative vote increased by 36.7 percent compared to 2022, an increase of 3,738 votes.
Liberals Get Disappointing Provincial Average Vote in a Riding They Poured Resources Into
Presumptions must be made in elections. The Liberals (and yes, pundits) presumed Dawn Danko would be a star candidate who would increase the party’s local vote percentage.
Danko, a well-known Central Mountain public school board trustee, secured 30.93 percent of the vote, which is marginally better than the Liberals’ provincial vote share of 29.95 percent.
Liberal Leader Bonnie Crombie’s final campaign stop on Wednesday was Dawn Danko’s campaign headquarters. The Liberals moved get-out-the-vote volunteers from the other Hamilton ridings into Hamilton Mountain.
Crombie could have ended in Burlington, a riding they placed second in, only 40 votes behind the Conservative incumbent.
There is an irony to Dawn Danko being overestimated in 2025. In 2016, her husband, now Ward 8 city councillor John-Paul Danko, was dismissed by local media when he ran in the Ward 7 by-election. He came second, only 92 votes behind media personality Donna Skelly.
Conservatives Focused Campaign Leads to Victory
The Mountain Conservatives campaign machine wisely used data to focus its efforts. During recent municipal, provincial, and federal elections, it learned where its voters are concentrated.
Monica Ciriello focused her canvassing in the neighbourhoods south of the LINC and strategically canvassed some other pockets of the riding.
The goal was to mobilize their voters while not misallocating time to voters they could not convince.
They used targeted social media advertising.
The Realignment of Private Sector Trades Unions Continues
Doug Ford made a point of focusing his campaign stops at now-Conservative union halls and unionized workplaces.
The Conservative strategy is working. For the first time since the 1995 Common Sense Revolution, they hold the majority of the Hamilton’s seats in the Legislature.
The building trades have renovated Hamilton East – Stoney Creek and Hamilton Mountain for the Conservatives.
The question now: who does Doug Ford choose to be Hamilton’s cabinet minister?
Production Details
v. 1.1.0
Published: February 28, 2025
Last updated: February 28, 2025
Author: Joey Coleman
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v. 1.0.0 original version
v. 1.1.0 modified headline for better word flow.