Advance voting is underway in Ontario’s most interesting local race.
Election Day is Thursday.
Will the NDP ‘retain’ its Hamilton Centre stronghold, will banished incumbent Sarah Jama win the election as an independent, or will some other party emerge from the middle?
I do not know the answer.
Instead of guessing, here are some observations from my viewpoint living in Hamilton Centre.
Sarah Jama has a fully funded campaign machine. (As I previously noted here.)
The Ontario NDP has a strong NDP candidate, Robin Lennox.
The Ontario Green Party should be able to grow its share of the vote, with Lucia Iannantuono running for a second time.
The Liberals have a candidate, Eileen Walker.
Sarah Bokhari is the Hamilton Centre Conservative candidate for a second time. (Bokhari did not attend the local television debate.)
No Campaigns at My Door
I have not yet seen any candidates at my door. [Campaigns usually leave literature if you are not home.]
Graeme MacKay posted that he received two pieces of literature yesterday from Jama and Lennox.
I received Jama’s literature delivered by Canada Post on Thursday, and I expect to receive Lennox’s on Monday.
Civil Public Campaigning, Tensions in the Community
I watched the Cable 14 debate and thought it was a civil back-and-forth between candidates.
The campaigns have (thus far) focused on promoting themselves and avoided direct negative rhetoric.
However, in the community, one can feel the tensions between passionate supporters and opponents of Jama. The people you’d expect to be uncivil are being uncivil.
The feeling of polarization is palpable. People tell me they are afraid to express their views, which is a problem for our democracy.
Jama versus Lennox: The Factions of the NDP are on the Ballot
Jama versus Lennox is a classic left-wing contest between philosophers on political methods for achieving progressive societal change.
Lennox and Jama share similar political views on encampments, housing, increasing social assistance, and serving marginalized people.
On the issue that caused Jama to be ousted from the NDP caucus, they both spoke in opposition to Israel’s military response to the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks.
They differ in methods. Jama comes from the on-the-street protesting left, Lennox from the at-the-table / at-the-podium process-oriented left.
To paraphrase the memoirs of former Nova Scotia NDP cabinet minister and Ontario’s only NDP Premier Bob Rae, the NDP has two broad factions: a more pragmatic wing and an ideological wing.
As former Premier Bob Rae wrote of appointing a member of the ideological left to his cabinet, “It was better to have him inside the tent pissing out than outside the tent pissing in. The problem was that he ended up inside the tent pissing in.”
“There are, within the Nova Scotia NDP, two broad factions,” wrote Graham Steele in his 2014 political memoir. “One is moderate, pragmatic, centrist. The other is more ideological, less accommodating.”
“Faction 1 sees Faction 2 as inflexible, pushy troublemakers. Faction 2 sees Faction 1 as weak, liberal sellouts. Faction 1 is larger and almost always carries the day at party meetings, but Faction 2 is louder.”
Who will NDP voters choose?
Winter Campaigning, Storms, and ‘Vote Splitting Up the Middle’
Winter campaigning is harder, and impossible at times.
It is cold, there are fewer daylight hours, and Hamilton is now nine days into the aftermath of winter storms.
The ground is frozen, the few lawn signs are now buried in snow.
There will be less voter awareness, and turnout will likely decrease.
Hamilton Centre is a NDP stronghold, winning the riding with over 50 percent since 2011.
The runner-up Liberal’s best showing during this period was 23.50 percent. When the Liberal vote collapsed, the Conservatives peaked at 16.47 percent.
There is no appearance of momentum for either the Liberals or NDP in Hamilton Centre.
An NDP 50/50 split between Jama and Lennox would still result in one of them being elected.
Election day is Thursday. Get out and vote. [Find your polling location here.]
Production Details
v. 1.0.0
Published: February 22, 2025
Last updated: February 22, 2025
Author: Joey Coleman
Update Record
v. 1.0.0 original version
Sorry we haven’t made it to your door, Joey! As you mentioned, the conditions have made it difficult for volunteers to get out, and we don’t have the kind of budget to do postal delivery across the riding. But I’m proud of what our Green team is able to accomplish with a small budget and a lot of dedication!
Thank you for commenting. Much appreciation to everyone out campaigning this winter.
Sarah Jama once tweeted : “Why are all cis straight men such trash” – December 5th, 2021
If a politician for equity said this about any other group, backlash would be swift—and justified. But when it’s about cis straight men, it’s excused. Why is it taboo to hold leaders to their own words? Real equity means consistency, not selective outrage.
Comments like this, I believe, show the real character of Mrs. Jama. She pretends to be about equity, but she’s really about exclusion. I’ll be voting NDP this election.