Sarah Jama announced today that the Ontario NDP will not permit her to be the party’s candidate in Hamilton Centre.
Jama was removed from the NDP caucus in October 2023 following her public comments and appearances following the October 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attacks that began the latest phase of the conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.
Since then, she’s sat in the Legislative Assembly as an independent. However, she has no speaking privileges following the Conservative government’s use of its majority to censure her.
Hamilton Centre NDP members, including MP Matthew Green, have campaigned to bring Jama back into the caucus.
Now, Jama will run as an independent.
Jama will be a formidable independent candidate with a high likelihood of winning.
Why Jama Should Win
She is a proven organizer, who created a robust independent riding association that is prepared for this race.
They have money in the bank, possibly over $100,000.
Her base is loyal, motivated, and will vote.
She enjoys strong support in many areas of the community. [And yes, strong opposition.]
The other parties are not mounting strong campaigns against her.
It will cost the NDP significant resources and money to compete against Jama.
The Independent Riding Association Has Tens of Thousands in the Bank: Can Spend the Limit
Following her removal from the NDP caucus, Jama created an independent riding association.
It raised $34,325.99 between November 29 to December 31, 2023.
It is very safe to presume Jama has the funds to spend the maximum permitted this election cycle.
Jama’s 2023 Hamilton Centre by-election financial return states the NDP spent $71,236.50 on items subject to the campaign spending limit.
[The 2022 general election return for then NDP leader Andrea Horwath states $91,582.28.]
[The 2022 general election spending limit for Hamilton Centre was $108,893]
She’s an Organizer, Her Base is Motivated, and Will Get Out the Vote
Let’s get the obvious out of the way: the person who gets the most votes wins.
Her independent riding association canvass teams are larger than those of the big three political parties. They have a robust list of identified supporters and opponents.
They will be able to get lawn signs deployed, volunteer signed up, get-out-the-vote (GOTV) lists ready, and easily be the most efficient campaign in the riding.
Liberals and Conservatives Barely Contesting the Race: No Competition is Another Factor
The NDP now needs to find a candidate and a campaign organization.
The Hamilton Centre “progressive-left” political machine that emerged between 2010 to 2014 is backing Jama.
This machine has won all the political seats in Wards 2 and 3. The public school board trustee seats, the city council seats, Jama, and MP Matthew Green were all elected with the backing of this machine.
This lack of an ‘establishment’ Hamilton Centre NDP machine is why the establishment wing was unable to block Jama’s nomination in 2022 when Horwath stepped down to run for mayor.
The Ontario Green candidate Lucia Iannantuono is running again, but the Greens lack the resources to out-campaign Jama.
Both the Liberals and Conservatives are parachuting in candidates.
Jama’s Support is Broader than Many Appreciate
During the warmer months of 2024, I observed Jama ‘on the street’ a few times.
One day, in particular, I stood with Jama on King Street East, between John Street and Hughson Street (in front of the former Cheapies) for about 20 minutes.
I was surprised by the number of people who stopped to converse and express their support for Jama.
‘Keep up the good fight,’ the ‘NDP no longer represents the working people,’ and ‘you are one of us’ were common statements.
They were people I have no recollection of meeting: Proverbial ‘everyday people,’ not ‘activists’ or ‘usual suspects.’
Lack of Competition is a Political Resource Calculation
Yes, Jama’s clear and strong stances on issues means many people have strongly negative views and options about her.
[A traditional columnist would use a term such as “polarizing,” then a few weeks later lament that politicians not have clear positions on the issues.]
It is a testament to Jama’s organizing ability that neither the Liberals or Conservatives are taking the obvious opportunity to run a contrasting candidate with a strong competition vision.
It remains to be seen if the NDP decides to allocate $150,000 (this includes post-campaign and exempt expenses) and campaign resources against Jama.
If I were placing bets, it be on them focusing their resources elsewhere.
Production Details
v. 1.0.0
Published: January 27, 2025
Last updated: January 27, 2025
Author: Joey Coleman
Update Record
v. 1.0.0 original version
I also thought Jama would win, especially after she won the sign battle. In any case I was really pleased when Robin Lennox won. She’s excellent candidate. It was a pleasure to work on her campaign. Marit Stiles, who took much unfair criticism when Jama had to be ousted from the party, is undoubtedly relieved with this result and so are many rank-and-file NDP folks in Hamilton Centre.
I recall thinking when I first read this that it was not going to age well ;-)
Won’t happen, but it would be nice to see the NDP-Sarah feud split the vote enough for the Green candidate to squeak past them. We need a change.
Why would I want to have her as Premier when she is banned from chamber? And has not done anything but segregate the community further, causing nothing but grief for the average Canadian.
She is supposed to be our voice. And she won’t have a voice in chamber because she is banned. We need an MPP that can actively represent us properly and actually care about us instead of caring about people across the pond.
Now, more than ever, SJ should not be representing our community. We have a responsibility to unite and uplift this community. She is a divisive figure, who only serves her own interests, as demonstrated by her many antics. What we need is a leader who can truly bring us together, someone who can raise our community to new heights. We need someone who will stand up for us — not someone who is distracted by those places so far from here, but whose mention, causes rifts in the fabric of this community. We are suffering from POOR LEADERSHIP, and she has been part of that problem, prioritizing power and creating empty promises that sound good in soundbites but are foundationless. What has she actually done for this community? We have NO VOICE in City Hall and NO REAL REPRESENTATION in the legislature. Right now, we are completely unheard and unrepresented, and that NEEDS TO CHANGE! We need real leadership that will address our community’s real problems, not focus on issues in other countries. We have plenty of challenges right here that require urgent attention. SJ will NOT GET MY VOTE.
Vote for that individual? No way!